Can New Zealand’s Prosperity Deal Set the Global Standard for UBI?

As artificial intelligence is actively disrupting the job market, most western governments are still treating it like some sort of passing trend. You’ve probably heard the usual phrases: “jobs will change, not disappear,” “reskilling is the answer,” “this is just the next industrial revolution.” Maybe that’s comforting to you. But it’s outdated—and dangerously out of step with reality.

Which is why I ended up writing The Prosperity Deal. It’s a Universal Basic Income policy designed not as a proof of concept or a philosophical debate, but as a real-world framework for keeping New Zealand’s economy afloat (and resilient) in a time where paid work is no longer guaranteed.

It hasn’t been adopted yet. It hasn’t even been debated in Parliament. Right now, it exists as a full policy proposal, publicly available, with legal frameworks, costings, and a rollout pathway. The question is whether anyone’s willing to take it seriously.

The Prosperity Deal is built around a two-tier model. Everyone receives a base income—no forms, no hoops, no bureaucracy. On top of that, people contributing in non-market ways (caregiving, volunteering, cultural preservation, creative work) are eligible for additional support. It’s a way of acknowledging that value doesn’t start and stop at what “the market” values as contribution.

What sets it apart is the funding model. Instead of drawing solely from income tax or GST, The Prosperity Deal proposes a levy on companies that automate away jobs without creating new ones—what I call the AI Displacement Contribution. It also includes Sovereign AI Licensing, UBI Bonds, and a national investment fund to buffer against future shocks. These tools are designed to make the policy sustainable—and to shift some responsibility back onto the systems profiting most from displacement.

It also includes legal entrenchment and co-governance, so that the deal can’t be quietly gutted with a change in government, and so that Māori aren’t asked to “consult” on a future they should be shaping from the start.

Of course it’s not simple. It assumes automation will scale quickly, and that we’ll be able to enforce taxation on tech multinationals (which, let’s be honest, have dodged everything else). It involves new infrastructure. It requires political will.

But what it doesn’t do is pretend that minor tweaks to the existing system will somehow hold us together. And when you compare it to what other countries have tried—Finland’s pilot, Canada’s Mincome, Stockton’s monthly cash payments—the difference is clear. Those programs proved UBI helps. People became healthier, more stable, less stressed. Some even worked more. But none of them were designed to address the scale of what’s happening now— entire industries being hollowed out by software and machines.

The Prosperity Deal isn’t designed to “fix” poverty—it’s designed to rebuild the foundation. To stop treating jobs as the only way to earn dignity. To ask what kind of economy we actually want, instead of tinkering with the one that’s failing us.

New Zealand has a history of going first. Votes for women. Nuclear disarmament. Marriage equality. We’re not new to being bold—just maybe a little out of practice?

This is an open invitation to get back into it.

You can read the policy in full when the site launches in the coming days. In the meantime, if this has you thinking, curious, or even a little sceptical—good. That’s the point.

We don’t need to wait for the rest of the world to figure this out first.